Show simple item record

Risk management of tunnel construction projects



dc.contributor.advisorŠejnoha Jiří
dc.contributor.authorŠpačková Olga
dc.date.accessioned2012-10-12T00:00:30Z
dc.date.available2012-10-12T00:00:30Z
dc.date.issued2012-10-12
dc.date.submitted2012-10-12 02:00:02.0
dc.identifierKOS-87920685605
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10467/13541
dc.description.abstractThis thesis provides tools for quantification of uncertainties in tunnel construction. First, it introduces a simple probabilistic model for the estimation of the delay due to occurrence of construction failures. The model is applied to a case study, which demonstrates, how the probabilistic estimate of construction delay can be used for assessing the risk and for making decisions.Second, advanced model including both the common variability and construction failures using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) is presented. The model is applied to two case studies for the estimation of tunnel construction time. It is demonstrated, how observations from the tunnel construction process can be included to continuously update the prediction of excavation time. Third, an efficient algorithm for the evaluation of the proposed DBN is developed. Fourth, performance data from tunnels constructed in the past are analysed. The data motivates the development of a novel combined probability distribution to describe the excavation performance. In addition, the probability of construction failure and the delay caused by such failures is estimated using databases available in the literature. Additionally, a brief database of tunnel projects and tunnel construction failures from the Czech Republic is compiled. The statistical analysis of data presented in the thesis provides a valuable input for probabilistic prediction of construction time in infrastructure projects. The results of the case studies seem to realistically reflect the uncertainty of the construction time estimates.
dc.description.abstractThis thesis provides tools for quantification of uncertainties in tunnel construction. First, it introduces a simple probabilistic model for the estimation of the delay due to occurrence of construction failures. The model is applied to a case study, which demonstrates, how the probabilistic estimate of construction delay can be used for assessing the risk and for making decisions.Second, advanced model including both the common variability and construction failures using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) is presented. The model is applied to two case studies for the estimation of tunnel construction time. It is demonstrated, how observations from the tunnel construction process can be included to continuously update the prediction of excavation time. Third, an efficient algorithm for the evaluation of the proposed DBN is developed. Fourth, performance data from tunnels constructed in the past are analysed. The data motivates the development of a novel combined probability distribution to describe the excavation performance. In addition, the probability of construction failure and the delay caused by such failures is estimated using databases available in the literature. Additionally, a brief database of tunnel projects and tunnel construction failures from the Czech Republic is compiled. The statistical analysis of data presented in the thesis provides a valuable input for probabilistic prediction of construction time in infrastructure projects. The results of the case studies seem to realistically reflect the uncertainty of the construction time estimates.eng
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherČeské vysoké učení technické v Praze. Vypočetní a informační centrum.cze
dc.rightsA university thesis is a work protected by the Copyright Act. Extracts, copies and transcripts of the thesis are allowed for personal use only and at one’s own expense. The use of thesis should be in compliance with the Copyright Act http://www.mkcr.cz/assets/autorske-pravo/01-3982006.pdf and the citation ethics http://www.cvut.cz/sites/default/files/content/d1dc93cd-5894-4521-b799-c7e715d3c59e/cs/20160901-metodicky-pokyn-c-12009-o-dodrzovani-etickych-principu-pri-priprave-vysokoskolskych.pdfeng
dc.rightsVysokoškolská závěrečná práce je dílo chráněné autorským zákonem. Je možné pořizovat z něj na své náklady a pro svoji osobní potřebu výpisy, opisy a rozmnoženiny. Jeho využití musí být v souladu s autorským zákonem http://www.mkcr.cz/assets/autorske-pravo/01-3982006.pdf a citační etikou http://www.cvut.cz/sites/default/files/content/d1dc93cd-5894-4521-b799-c7e715d3c59e/cs/20160901-metodicky-pokyn-c-12009-o-dodrzovani-etickych-principu-pri-priprave-vysokoskolskych.pdfcze
dc.subjectRizika výstavby, tunelové projekty, infrastrukturní projekty, modelování nejistot, doba výstavby, dynamické bayesovské sítě, analýza rizik.cze
dc.titleRisk management of tunnel construction projects
dc.titleRisk management of tunnel construction projectseng
dc.typedisertační prácecze
dc.date.updated2012-10-12T00:00:30Z
dc.date.accepted2012-10-10 00:00:00.0
dc.contributor.refereeTichý Milík
dc.description.departmentkatedra mechanikycze
theses.degree.namePh.D.cze
theses.degree.disciplineEkonomika a řízení ve stavebnictvícze
theses.degree.grantorFakulta stavebnícze
theses.degree.programmeStavební inženýrstvícze
evskp.contactČVUTcze


Files in this item



This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record