Full probabilistic design of a submerged floating tunnel and format for partial safety factors

Abstract

A submerged floating tunnel (SFT) can be a promising solution for crossing a deep or wide waterway. This innovative concept however lacks research into its probabilistic design. In this research, the reliability of the tether-stabilized SFT is assessed. A first-order reliability method (FORM) and a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) are performed for the limit state functions of the most important failure mechanisms. Stochastic variables are chosen so that a target reliability index of 3.8 for a reference period of 50 years is met. The calculated factors from the full probabilistic design are compared with the general recommended partial factors for strength and resistance from Eurocode EN1990. For the strength mechanisms, the calculated factors are smaller than the factors from Eurocode. However, for the equilibrium mechanism, the calculated factor for the unfavorable loading is larger than the factor from Eurocode and should be increased by 10% in order to design a safe enough SFT.