Analysis of delays in construction tasks
Analysis of delays in construction tasks
Type of document
disertační práceAuthor
Ruíz Santamaría Omar Gonzalo
Supervisor
Beran Václav
Opponent
Molnár Zdeněk
Field of study
Ekonomika a řízení ve stavebnictvíStudy program
Stavební inženýrstvíInstitutions assigning rank
Fakulta stavebníDefended
2012-11-20 00:00:00.0Rights
A university thesis is a work protected by the Copyright Act. Extracts, copies and transcripts of the thesis are allowed for personal use only and at one’s own expense. The use of thesis should be in compliance with the Copyright Act http://www.mkcr.cz/assets/autorske-pravo/01-3982006.pdf and the citation ethics http://www.cvut.cz/sites/default/files/content/d1dc93cd-5894-4521-b799-c7e715d3c59e/cs/20160901-metodicky-pokyn-c-12009-o-dodrzovani-etickych-principu-pri-priprave-vysokoskolskych.pdfVysokoškolská závěrečná práce je dílo chráněné autorským zákonem. Je možné pořizovat z něj na své náklady a pro svoji osobní potřebu výpisy, opisy a rozmnoženiny. Jeho využití musí být v souladu s autorským zákonem http://www.mkcr.cz/assets/autorske-pravo/01-3982006.pdf a citační etikou http://www.cvut.cz/sites/default/files/content/d1dc93cd-5894-4521-b799-c7e715d3c59e/cs/20160901-metodicky-pokyn-c-12009-o-dodrzovani-etickych-principu-pri-priprave-vysokoskolskych.pdf
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The topic of this thesis is the analysis of delays in construction tasks. The main goal of the research is using a practical but effective simulation method better known as Virtual Management Momentum or marginal differences which consists of the comparison between graphs of production, speed of production and acceleration applied to construction tasks.The simulation consisted of four steps. First, from the most likely productivity and its optimistic and pessimistic values generated the data of production. Second, the uncertainty introduced by the model in the charts suggested analysis of short time periods rather than long. After adjustment, the model produced more realistic estimations of the activity's behavior. From the analysis in this research, it was found that long term forecasts produce ranges of times around two times bigger than when the activity is divided into smaller periods supplemented by short term forecasts. Third, from the data obtained, risk analysis giving the percentage of the activity's certainty and risk of delay was established. Fourth, the construction time series (production, speed and acceleration) were used in recurrence plots and the qualitative analysis explained the random behavior for the productivity and acceleration of the construction task but the production time series showed a deterministic behavior.Due to its flexibility, the model offered a good user's interaction in the simulation, making the establishment of some control points along the activity performance possible. These control points redefined: the managerial actions allowing users to change the values of productivity; the incorporation of some negative scenarios that diminish productivity; or; the inclusion of discontinuity in the activity performance (breaks).Three cases were discussed in the application of the Virtual Management Momentum in determining the duration of construction tasks: long term forecast, short term forecast (control points) and short term forecast considering changes is the most likely productivity. Further applications include in Regional development where the production of the region was considered as the variable. See appendices.The main contribution of this research was to implement a completely different approach to study the delay problem in construction tasks; the methodology had the pedagogical value of simulation-based models which helped in the learning processes and discuss their findings, and to gain a deeper understanding of the dynamics of construction production systems.This research also contributes another step of using recurrence plots for understanding the construction time series. Nevertheless, the assessment done was merely qualitative and opens a possibility for further research in the use of analysis of complex systems. The topic of this thesis is the analysis of delays in construction tasks. The main goal of the research is using a practical but effective simulation method better known as Virtual Management Momentum or marginal differences which consists of the comparison between graphs of production, speed of production and acceleration applied to construction tasks.The simulation consisted of four steps. First, from the most likely productivity and its optimistic and pessimistic values generated the data of production. Second, the uncertainty introduced by the model in the charts suggested analysis of short time periods rather than long. After adjustment, the model produced more realistic estimations of the activity's behavior. From the analysis in this research, it was found that long term forecasts produce ranges of times around two times bigger than when the activity is divided into smaller periods supplemented by short term forecasts. Third, from the data obtained, risk analysis giving the percentage of the activity's certainty and risk of delay was established. Fourth, the construction time series (production, speed and acceleration) were used in recurrence plots and the qualitative analysis explained the random behavior for the productivity and acceleration of the construction task but the production time series showed a deterministic behavior.Due to its flexibility, the model offered a good user's interaction in the simulation, making the establishment of some control points along the activity performance possible. These control points redefined: the managerial actions allowing users to change the values of productivity; the incorporation of some negative scenarios that diminish productivity; or; the inclusion of discontinuity in the activity performance (breaks).Three cases were discussed in the application of the Virtual Management Momentum in determining the duration of construction tasks: long term forecast, short term forecast (control points) and short term forecast considering changes is the most likely productivity. Further applications include in Regional development where the production of the region was considered as the variable. See appendices.The main contribution of this research was to implement a completely different approach to study the delay problem in construction tasks; the methodology had the pedagogical value of simulation-based models which helped in the learning processes and discuss their findings, and to gain a deeper understanding of the dynamics of construction production systems.This research also contributes another step of using recurrence plots for understanding the construction time series. Nevertheless, the assessment done was merely qualitative and opens a possibility for further research in the use of analysis of complex systems.
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